In the latest update on Tropical Storm Idalia, it is projected to strengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico. This brings the potential for life-threatening storm surge and strong winds along the Florida Gulf Coast. While computer models have shown a slight shift in the storm’s path away from the Tampa Bay coast, it’s important to note that small shifts can still occur before landfall. Thus, parts of the region may still experience the impact of the storm. With a hurricane warning in effect for areas including Tampa Bay and a storm surge warning for Englewood and Indian Pass, it is crucial for residents to stay updated with the latest forecasts and heed any evacuation orders.
Now, turning to 10 Tampa Bay chief meteorologist Bobby deskins for the most recent update, it appears that Idalia is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 miles per hour. While there is some concern about the storm’s eastward jog, the overall forecast from the Hurricane Center remains fairly decent. It is expected that the highest winds will remain offshore, but rain rounds will start to affect the region. As the storm continues to progress, it is important to monitor the latest track, which suggests that Idalia may become a Category 2 hurricane with wind speeds reaching 120 miles per hour prior to landfall early Wednesday morning.
Tracking the Tropics: Idalia expected to become major hurricane over Gulf of Mexico (11 p.m. Monday)
Welcome to our comprehensive article on the tracking of Tropical Storm Idalia, which is expected to become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. In this article, we will provide you with the latest updates on the storm’s current status, potential threats to the Florida Gulf Coast, and the forecast models and trends. We aim to keep you informed and prepared for the impacts and timeline for the affected areas.
Current status of Tropical Storm Idalia
Tropical Storm Idalia is currently nearing hurricane strength as it continues on its track toward the Gulf of Mexico. As of the latest update at 11 p.m. on Monday, the storm has winds of 70 miles per hour. We have reconnaissance planes monitoring the storm’s progress, with one plane leaving now and another already out there moving to the north.
Potential threat to the Florida Gulf Coast
While computer models have shifted the storm a bit farther away from the Tampa Bay coast, it’s important to note that small shifts may continue to occur before the storm makes landfall. Parts of the region will still experience the “dirty” side of the system, with life-threatening storm surge and strong winds becoming increasingly likely for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast.
Shift in computer models
The latest forecast guidance from the Hurricane Center indicates that the storm has jogged a little bit more towards the east. Ideally, we would like to see it move further to the west to stay further offshore. However, overall, the forecast still looks fairly decent for our region, as the highest winds are expected to stay offshore.
Warnings and advisories in effect
Currently, a hurricane warning is in effect from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. Additionally, a storm surge warning is in effect for Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. It is important for residents in these areas to stay updated on the latest information and follow any evacuation orders or safety advisories given by local authorities.
Latest update from Chief Meteorologist Bobby deskins
Here’s the latest update from our chief meteorologist, Bobby Deskins. As of the 11 o’clock numbers, Tropical Storm Idalia is still at 70 miles per hour. While the storm hasn’t become a hurricane yet, it is expected to reach that status overnight, possibly by 5 a.m. in the morning. The forecast track shows that it will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mile per hour winds by tomorrow morning and 120 mile per hour winds by landfall, which is expected early on Wednesday morning.
Track and intensity forecast
The forecast guidance from the Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will move back up across the Carolinas after making landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. The current track is similar to the forecast at 5 o’clock earlier in the day. Our in-house model is closer to our region, but it is encouraging to see the forecast modeling leaning more towards keeping the storm offshore. The European models and the GFS are split, but the general trend would put the storm up towards the Big Bend area by Wednesday morning.
Forecast guidance from data collected by planes
The planes collecting data from the storm have been crucial in providing forecast guidance. The latest data gathered shows that the storm is right on the doorstep of becoming a hurricane. While they could not find 75 mile per hour winds to officially make it a hurricane, the forecast still indicates that it will become one overnight. No significant changes have been made to the warnings for our region, but additional warnings have been issued for the East Coast as the storm drops and crosses over.
Progression of the storm
As we look at the progression of the storm, the winds are expected to start picking up tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. By 6-7 p.m. on Tuesday, winds of 35-45 miles per hour will start to push into our region. As we move through the overnight hours, the wind will continue to push onshore, and the storm surge will become more pronounced. The highest winds are primarily offshore, but landfall is expected somewhere in the area. To minimize storm surge, it is crucial to keep the storm as far away from Citrus County as possible.
Forecast models and trends
The current forecast models show a good trend for our region, with the storm staying more offshore. While our in-house model is closer to us, the Hurricane Center’s forecast is in the middle between the European models and the GFS. If this trend continues, the storm will likely make landfall in the Big Bend area. Residents in this area should be prepared for the potential impacts of the storm and closely monitor any updates or changes in the forecast.
Impacts and timeline for affected areas
Based on the forecast, the affected areas should expect high storm surge and strong winds. The timeline for these impacts is as follows: tomorrow afternoon, winds of 35-45 miles per hour will start pushing in, and by early Wednesday morning, the storm will make landfall with winds reaching 120 miles per hour. The storm surge will be most severe in the identified area, and residents should take appropriate measures to ensure their safety.
In conclusion, Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. While the storm has shifted slightly away from the Tampa Bay coast, we must continue to monitor its progress as small shifts can still occur. It is important for residents in the affected areas to remain vigilant, follow the warnings and advisories issued by local authorities, and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Stay tuned for further updates and stay safe.
Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. We anticipate that it will bring life-threatening storm surge and strong winds to parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. Although computer models show the storm shifting slightly away from the Tampa Bay coast, it is important to note that there may still be small shifts before the storm makes landfall. Even areas in the region that are not directly impacted by the storm’s center will still experience its effects. As a result, a hurricane warning is currently in effect from the middle of Longboat Key to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay, and a storm surge warning is also in effect. For more information, you can subscribe to our channel or visit our website, Facebook, or Twitter pages.